Migration Management

Critical assessment of the “hotspots” analysis

From IFC (2009: 62), “hotspots” refers to “the likely destination/s of in-migrants that need to be protected from, and prepared for, an expected wave of project-induced in-migration”. In other words, consideration of hotspots needs both to predict where migrants are most likely to congregate , as well as what effect their presence will have for each locality.

The “Potential Hotspots” Excel provides a template rubric for comparative analysis of unique and discernible geographic units (i.e. the charted rubric could be used to examine differences between project-affected villages, between sub-districts, districts, and provinces, as well as to make international comparisons). The implication of the accompanying “Hotspot Map,” is that it depicts the probability of in-migration to each existing village in the project CoW area (Sheet 2), based on some amalgam / value-ranking of the total set of indices that constitute the rubric (Sheet 1).

CLARIFICATION: Assessing the impacts of project-induced in-migration

The IFC Handbook for Addressing Project-Induced In-Migration states that “the most important component of the situation analysis is prediction of the type and probability of the key impacts associated with in-migration and the location, timing and likely severity of their occurrence” (IFC 2009: 65). The impacts of project-induced in-migration may be aggregated as categories and assessed in terms of the probability or severity, the timeframe of their occurrence, etc.

IFC recommends evaluating each site against a template issues list, such as (IFC 2009: 67):

• Logging Deforestation • Exploitation and loss of biodiversity • Land-use change • Land degradation • Depletion of natural resources • Erosion and loss of soil productivity • Air, water, and soil pollution • Disruption of waterways • Increased pressure on, and possible disputes over, land use and common property natural resources

For each issue, the anticipated rate and magnitude of in-migration should also be weighted factors.

IFC (2009: 65) stresses that knowledge of local conditions is critical and hinges on being able to draw on lessons from other projects with comparable circumstances to learn more about not only the type, probability, and severity of impacts, but also from the implementation experiences of other companies. Factors (IFC 2009:59) which might be relevant for the WBN project include:

• Ethnic/religious relations and any recent history of conflict; • Existence of ethnic groups with particular trade skills and/or high mobility; • Distribution of vectors and diseases and risk of transfer from areas of high incidence to other areas; and • Existence of large, mobile populations of ASMs; recognized problems with small-scale illegal logging.

The existence of such factors serve as a “red flag” (IFC 2009: 59) to indicate that a specific impact needs to be addressed irrespective of the overall probability of influx and other factors or potential influx-induced changes in the project context.

For example, in an area with known risks of transfer of recognized vectors and diseases, even a low probability of in-migration may be associated with potentially medium-high risks of health impacts. Similarly regions with recent/persistent ethnic tension and violence should consider how in-migration may serve to exacerbate existing problems. (IFC 2009: 59)

As the IFC Handbook for Addressing Project-Induced In-Migration stresses (2009: 66), a systematic approach to this exercise involves the following three key steps:

1. Use the analysis of in-migration pathways and hotspots to identify where the in-migration phenomenon will be expressed. Subsequent analysis should be conducted separately for each hotspot.

2. Combine local and regional assessment. The type, probability, and severity of potential impacts should be analyzed at a local level at identified in-migration hotspots. Note that there is limited utility in aggregation for the purposes of analysis and design of an influx management plan.

3. Use a combination of predictions regarding the rate and magnitude of in-migration and knowledge of local, regional, and national conditions to identify the key impacts. See IFC (2009 Annex 4) for a summary table of factors and potential impacts associated with project-induced in-migration. An aggregate analysis should be developed for each factor.

Source Cited:

International Finance Corporation. 2009. Projects and Peoples: A Handbook for Addressing Project-Induced In-Migration. IFC: Washington D.C. http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/sustainability.nsf/Content/Publications_Handbook_Inmigration