Social risk across an archipelago
An offshore development can change life on land through its landing places, logistics, recruitment and demand for services. A coastal facility can affect people whose homes lie elsewhere but whose fishing, farming or customary relationships connect them to the site. Social risk identification therefore starts by tracing dependencies between people, places and project activities.
The public Abadi LNG example illustrates this task. Historical consultation experience informs the questions; dated public evidence establishes project milestones. Neither establishes that a proposed impact occurred or that mitigation succeeded.
Reassess the social geography when design changes
In January 2013, Abadi's engineering announcement described a 2.5 million tonne annual floating LNG concept. The later development scheme describes an onshore facility with 9.5 million tonnes of LNG annually, approved in 2019 and revised to incorporate CCS in December 2023. These are different design descriptions, not comparable measurements of social harm. A changed design requires renewed screening of land, sea, infrastructure and affected relationships. 2013 announcement, p. 2; project history.
INPEX's February 2026 announcement reports AMDAL environmental approval covering drilling, production and processing facilities, and the liquefaction plant. Indonesia's energy ministry subsequently reported a 16 July 2026 groundbreaking. These milestones establish progress towards development; they provide no demonstration of completed construction, restored livelihoods or resolved customary claims. Environmental approval; government construction announcement.
Use maps to define inquiry
The historical Tanimbar baseline case preserves village geography, transport layers and a proposed 2015 fieldwork programme associated with an earlier design. Its geography helps explain an archipelago assessment: sampling and engagement must consider connections across islands, settlements and landing places. Proposed sites record planning choices; verifying completed interviews requires field records.
Historical village positions and transport features, with separate 2020 regency context. The reconciled subset of the 2015 proposed study sites is highlighted; the original list contains 28 places. This map shows an earlier planning edition; it does not show the current project footprint, current transport operations or a spatial join to the 2024 figures below. Village geography is attributed to BPS 2010, except Eliase, whose source is unrecorded. Map metadata and extract.
Public accounts also corroborate the earlier consultation work. CCCS describes a 2013–15 programme combining community evidence, disclosure requirements, national and local rules, staff capacity and grievance follow-up. This supports a case about building an engagement system without attributing later project outcomes to that work. Public programme description.
Make access visible
BPS's 2025 Tanimbar Selatan publication supplies useful contemporary context from Podes 2024. Its village populations and distances to the regency capital can be compared without treating them as the historical baseline.
| Village or urban ward | Population, 2024 | Distance to regency capital, km |
|---|---|---|
| Lermatang | 1,445 | 25 |
| Latdalam | 3,186 | 37 |
| Matakus | 544 | 19 |
| Sifnana | 2,582 | 1 |
| Saumlaki | 10,800 | 1 |
| Olilit | 5,212 | 3 |
Source: BPS, Tanimbar Selatan in Figures 2025, released 26 September 2025, tables 1.2 and 3.1, printed pp. 8 and 26–27; both report 2024 data sourced from Podes.
Download the six observations with table references and units. These places illustrate variation within Tanimbar Selatan; the selection does not identify all affected villages or represent the district statistically.
The contrast raises a practical question: who can attend an event in the administrative centre? Distance alone cannot answer it. Collect travel mode, fares, schedules, weather reliability, care responsibilities and accessibility needs. Test whether local meetings, supported travel or other channels improve participation. Current observations need their own geographic crosswalk before joining them to historical village points.
Identify customary relationships before assigning categories
IFC Performance Standard 7 identifies characteristics involving self-identification, collective attachment, distinct institutions and language. Competent assessment should examine these in context; an administrative boundary or remote-sensing class cannot establish them. Where PS7 applies, identify affected communities and expected impacts, develop culturally appropriate measures and engagement, and examine whether the circumstances requiring free, prior and informed consent arise. The standard's applicability and any FPIC requirement need project-specific evidence. PS7, paragraphs 5–11 and 13–17.
INPEX's public social reporting describes household surveys, focus groups and key-informant interviews examining vulnerability, customary livelihoods, sacred places, heritage and land rights. These methods show why spatial analysis needs social inquiry alongside it. Sustainability report 2024, p. 115.
Connect evidence to decisions
The following pathways are assessment questions, not findings that these impacts occurred at Abadi. Their value lies in linking a plausible mechanism to evidence and a management choice.
| Social dependency | Evidence to assemble | Decision it supports |
|---|---|---|
| Fishing and shore access | Seasonal use, landing places, users and proposed restrictions | Alter routes or timing; preserve access; assess restoration needs |
| Customary land and shared resources | Participatory tenure histories, overlapping uses and representative institutions | Avoid sensitive areas; establish appropriate engagement and eligibility |
| Water, health and housing | Delivered capacity, affordability and existing users | Sequence works, workforce accommodation and service measures |
| Consultation and grievances | Reach by place and group, barriers, responses and unresolved issues | Change engagement channels and resource follow-up |
Open imagery and land-cover data can locate broad landscape features. ESA WorldCover provides 10-metre products for 2020 and 2021, but its differing algorithms complicate change comparisons. Mapped vegetation is not proof of ownership or use. WorldCover data guidance.
At sea, Global Fishing Watch can add industrial activity context. Its AIS dataset represents less than 1% of fishing vessels under 12 metres globally. A quiet map therefore cannot demonstrate absent small-scale fishing; participatory seasonal mapping remains essential. Fishing-effort coverage.
Establish what delivery must demonstrate
Carry the baseline into management through identifiable obligations, responsible teams, budgets and monitoring. Separate participation counts from meaningful access, assistance delivered from livelihood recovery, and approval milestones from performance. Follow up affected users across seasons, investigate differences between groups and adjust measures when evidence shows an unresolved problem. The resulting case tells a credible social-development story: how information changes project decisions, and what subsequent evidence is needed to judge their results.